The Iranian
nuclear programme continues to expand. Hardly anyone still doubts
that Iran is at least trying to achieve a breakout-capability. A
capability that would basically put all pieces into place, so that
the construction of a bomb could be finished on short notice. The
last report by the IAEA on the implementation of the Safeguard
Agreements clearly indicates that Iran is making dramatic progress
and the
ISIS is arguing that it is time for the Security Council [pdf] to
take up the issue again. Its fairly obvious that the crisis does not
present a single good option, yet the debate in academia and
international relations has shifted considerably over the past few
months. More and more analysts seem to perceive the task at hand as
one of avoiding war and not avoiding another nuclear power entering
the fray. And that is a problem in itself.
Mittwoch, 12. September 2012
Dienstag, 11. September 2012
Is a Ceasefire With the Taleban Possible?
This
RUSI report [pdf] occupied me for the last hour or so and I
thought it worth sharing. Now, by and large I have enormous respect
for RUSI and most of what is being published there is outstanding.
This report, however, is a bit awkward, though not necessarily
misguided. It is kind of strange to see four scholars interviewing
four Taleban or Taleban-associated players and coming away with some
very general, far-reaching conclusions. Basically that it is time to
negotiate a ceasefire with the Taleban, a ceasefire, moreover, that
would only need Mullah Omar's endorsement to take hold. There are a
couple of things that give me pause. On facebook a colleague pointed
out how strange it is for a Taleban-associated political player to
use a reference to the British Tory-LibDem government to compare the
inner workings of the Afghan Taleban. And in fact it is. If its an
accurate portrayal of the conversation, the interviewee is probably
living in the UK, which raises some questions on which authority he
can actually give insight into the inner workings of the
organisation. I have argued repeatedly, and so have many other before
and after me, that there is actually no Taleban. The Taleban are a
highly fractured movement and it remains debatable to what extent
Mullah Omar actually is in control. Omar, that much the report does
acknowledge, would hardly be in a position to speak for the Haqqani
network, operating out of Pakistan. And how a ceasefire would
translate to Pakistani politics in the region is an entirely
different, though highly important question. Can the Taleban maintain
any cohesion once the war comes to a hold, or would it not fracture
even more and hence render the ceasefire useless in the first place?
This, after all, is a war we find ourselves in, but its not a war
that will end with our withdrawal. And the report does not go into
detail when it comes to the areas that actually are in control of the
Taleban. There, it seems, the group is imposing policies that would
take the country right back to the 1990s (and theirs wasn't the good
nineties). But even if this report accurately reflects the position
of some Taleban figures, it leaves some open questions, all of them
hard to untangle. Would the Taleban be willing to demobilise?
Probably not. Would the Taleban acknowledge secular law? Surely not.
Would the Taleban, if the would allow elections, allow women to vote?
Almost certainly not. Would the Taleban allow for non-Muslims to run
for office? You want to hold your breath? The bottom line is this:
Some negotiations will have to take place and sooner rather than
later. But this report reads a little to perfect to be accurate.
Remembering 9/11
Eleven years ago, Salman Rushdie offered one of the best takes on 9/11 and it is always worth re-reading, as Rushdie is in general: "The fundamentalist believes that we believe in nothing. In his world-view, he has his absolute certainties, while we are sunk in sybaritic indulgences. To prove him wrong, we must first know that he is wrong. We must agree on what matters: kissing in public places, bacon sandwiches, disagreement, cutting-edge fashion, literature, generosity, water, a more equitable distribution of the world's resources, movies, music, freedom of thought, beauty, love." I find it re-assuring that today more people can enjoy these freedoms than they could eleven years ago.
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